On Saturday, just after 6.00 in the morning, an explosion took place on the bridge over the Kerch Strait, connecting the occupied Crimea with Russia, which severely damaged both lines – the railway and the car one. For now, it is not certain what exactly happened, whether it was an accident or a Ukrainian attack, but one thing is for sure: it will be a long time before anyone can ride this bridge again. And if the war goes in the way of Ukraine, the bridge will probably never be rebuilt again – it is hard to imagine that Kyiv would want to preserve the structure, the main purpose of which was to consolidate the occupation of Crimea.
According to some official Russian sources, there was an explosion in a truck going from Russia to the peninsula. The explosion ignited the tanks forming a train going in the same direction. The video below seems to confirm this version, but of course it does not decide whether the explosion itself was accidental or deliberate.
pic.twitter.com/s82ft6KQC0
– International Observers Ukraine (@INTobservers) October 8, 2022
In turn, Oleg Kriuczkov, deputy head of the Crimean administration, claimed that the fire occurred in the train itself. But the same Kriuczkov also claimed that the bridge was not seriously damaged and that nobody was hurt, which is a standard excuse of Russian officials (not only Russian, in fact) when establishing an official propaganda line about the event. The “seriously damaged” bridge looks like this:
pic.twitter.com/AH2DmPpAze
– Elena Evdokimova (@ elenaevdokimov7) October 8, 2022
Obviously, the Ukrainians had long announced an attack on the Crimean Bridge and made a reservation that they were not attacking it only because of the lack of appropriate technical capabilities. It is not only a symbol of the occupation, but also a key logistic route – it is this way that supplies the Russian troops in the Kherson Oblast and a large part of the Zaporizhia Oblast. Now the only permanent route is through Melitopol, the so-called land corridor to the Crimea. And as we wrote recently, the Russians fear that the enemy will soon start an offensive in this direction.
Here, something stirred up just before it exploded. UMV? pic.twitter.com/atC1EHYiMM
– Oskar Kochan (@papier_o) October 8, 2022
Is it possible that we were dealing with a Ukrainian attack? Theoretically, yes, but it would have to be an operation by special forces or simply by spies. There are no means of destruction in the line units that could reach the bridge from the positions currently occupied by Ukrainian forces. The size of the explosion and damage indicates that the charges installed by several commandos were not used. Theoretically, the bridge is perfectly protected against attacks by divers, unmanned submarines and submarines, but we have already learned many times that in Russia theory itself and practice itself. Filling the truck with explosives is the least of the problems. The bigger problem is to do it on the Russian side and then detonate it at the right moment.
Footage reportedly of the explosion that hit the Crimean Bridge pic.twitter.com/qQR6nhsb6B
– OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) October 8, 2022
Mick Ryan suggests that if we are dealing with a Ukrainian attack – regardless of specific methods – it may be a preparation for the imminent recovery of Crimea. The Ukrainians have repeatedly proved that they can carry out battlefield-shaping operations, we saw this before the counter-offensive in the Kherson and Kharkiv regions. Cutting off Crimea from regular supplies is an obvious first step before the campaign on the peninsula. But it could also be a diversionary attack to convince the Russians that an attack on Crimea is imminent, while the actual attack will take place elsewhere (read: in Donbas).
4 / Second, the Ukrainians so far have been excellent at operational design and shaping operations in advance of their advances. This could be part of their design for taking back Crimea in the short term – or part of a deception operation to distract from other areas.
– Mick Ryan, AM (@WarintheFuture) October 8, 2022
Either way, it is a colossal humiliation for Putin and his inner circle, and for individuals in the south of Ukraine – a huge problem. Ukraine achieved a gigantic victory (we rarely use this adjective, but no other one fits here) in the noosphere, i.e. in the mental sphere.
Meanwhile, the Russians urgently restored the operation of the ferry, which, before the bridge was built, was the only way for cars to cross the Kerch Strait. It can be expected that the interest in ferry services is already beyond its capacity – the military will be given priority both ways (similarly to the traffic on the bridge), and the Russians who have moved to Crimea as home, and have moved back to Russia, they will have to wait in lines.
See also: Ukrainians attacked a Russian bomber base 200 km from the border
Rosavtodor
