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    176th day of the war. It’s getting hotter and hotter on the Crimean peninsula

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    The front line remains static along almost its entire length. For several weeks now – practically since the fall of Lisiczańska – the Russians have been making concrete progress only in the Bakhmuk direction, which we will look at later in the report. Besides, neither one nor the other side is able to push the opponent out of the currently occupied, more and more prepared and strengthened, defensive positions. The eyes of analysts are still on Kherson, but more and more is happening a hundred kilometers to the southeast – on the Crimean peninsula.

    In the Kherson section, let us note that tonight again explosions in Nowa Kachovka were heard from the vicinity of Zaopra on the Dnieper. Witnesses mention as many as ten separate outbreaks.

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    Crimea

    Since the recent attack on the Novofedorivka airbase on the west coast of Crimea, the million dollar question was whether it was an isolated case, for example, intended to destabilize Russian war plans on the southern front, or a harbinger of more frequent Ukrainian actions on the peninsula. Today we can answer with a probability bordering on certainty that the latter is true.

    At least four outbursts occurred at Belbek airfield north of Sevastopol; it could be heard even in Bakhchisaray twenty kilometers away. Fresh satellite imagery proves it was a tasty target. The Russians seem to be still not aware that there is a war going on (or even a special operation, as he called it) and that the enemy is capable of attacking targets in Crimea. In keeping with this dismissive attitude, they ignore the basic principles of securing airfields from attack and, like the Americans in Pearl Harbor before December 7, 1941, they line up their planes in neat rows.

    Earlier, there was also an attack on the Hvardiyskem airport (known in Russian as Gvardeyskoye) in the central part of Crimea. Russian media reported on columns of smoke rising above the airport and the sounds of explosions. Here, however, satellite images do not confirm that there was an attack, at least not one that caused serious losses. Perhaps here we are really dealing with an ordinary accident. Joseph Trevithick on The War Zone website published an interesting analysis of fresh photos of the base in Hwardijśkem.

    Finally, in the town of Miżwodne (Mezhvodnoye in Russian) in the north-western part of the peninsula, a fire broke out in the building of the Border Service of the FSB.

    According to the Russian news agency TASS, the anti-aircraft defense in the Kerch Strait area and responsible for the protection of the bridge launched missiles this evening. The following recording was supposed to be made there. The Russians reportedly managed to shoot down a Ukrainian drone.

    The Russian “law enforcement”, however, wrote down a certain “success” – alleged members of the Islamist organization Hizb at-Tahrir, recognized by Russia as terrorist, were arrested. Let us recall that in the first month of the war, five Crimean Tatars operating in the Crimean Solidarity group were sentenced to 14 and 15 years’ imprisonment for membership (it is not known whether real) in Hizb at-Tahrir. It is worth paying attention to how the perfectly secured “evidence” fits into the Kremlin’s narrative about Nazi Ukraine. Russian propaganda has already started to intensively promote the narrative about the ties between Tatar terrorists and the Ukrainian authorities.

    Kharkov

    The Russians are still trying to conduct offensive operations, especially towards the village of Udy, north-west of Kozacza Łopania. Invariably, they have the aftertaste of being tied up in a fight rather than a real offensive. Besides, let’s be honest: keeping at least a scrap of land on the Ukrainian side of the border on this stretch of the border is a prestigious issue for Muscovites. If they were to be pushed out, it would be a huge propaganda victory for Ukraine, even if it would be of little importance at the strategic and operational level.

    Speaking of the border, a lot was happening on its Russian side, far deeper into Russia. At the airport in Stary Oskół, 160 kilometers from the border, there was an explosion and a huge fire.

    In turn, a large ammunition depot went up in smoke today in Timonowo (also in the Belgorod region). And in this case, the satellite images show a tasty goal: an installation densely packed with equipment, containers, pallets, and practically without dikes or other security measures. The fire had started before sunset, and at the time of publishing this report (just before midnight), the flames were still rising over Timonov.

    Unfortunately, the city of Kharkiv once again experienced a war à la russe. As a result of the Russian attack with cruise missiles in the North Kharkiv district of Saltivka, at least six people lost their lives and sixteen were injured.

    Bacchmouth

    As it was said, only here the Russians can boast of anything. They already have the villages of Kłynowe, Pokrowśke and Bachmutśke, securing Bachmut from the east, thanks to which they can attack Bachmut from three sides. The loss of the city – defended by Hetman Ivan Wyhowski’s 58th Independent Motorized Infantry Brigade – is probably just a matter of time under these circumstances. Like the actual erasure of Bakhmut from the face of the earth as the place where any organized human society exists. Zaitseve is still defending south of Bakhmut. Neither side has reported even minimal territorial gains today.

    In the Bakhmuck section, the bandits of the Wagner Group, who suffered heavy losses in the Ukrainian attack on Popasna, play an important role. So other bandits – Kadyrovts, probably about a thousand – were sent there as reinforcements.

    We should also note that the Minister of Defense, Oleksiy Reznikov, stated that Ukraine has not yet lost any of the sixteen M142 HIMARS launchers delivered so far.

    Enerhodar

    A video has been released showing that the Russians are using buildings in the complex of the largest nuclear power plant in Europe as storage facilities for military equipment. One could shrug it off, after all, we have known for a long time about the presence of soldiers from the occupation forces in the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant and that artillery shelling was carried out from there. Besides, it is not known when the video was recorded. In practice, however, this is another proof of how the Kremlin is trying to play the security of the whole of Europe against Ukraine.

    It is particularly outrageous that the following video showing Russian trucks with a lousy invader “zetka” was taken inside one of the six turbine halls on the west side of the power plant, in the immediate vicinity of nuclear reactors. Meanwhile, even this evening, Russian multi-lead missile launchers deployed at the power plant fired again at the ZSU positions.

    Unfortunately, there are serious concerns that the occupiers want to provoke. It is easy to guess what its scenario would be: the alleged Ukrainian counter-fire (Russian missiles or simply explosives planted by the occupiers) destroys some of the Russian equipment and, for example, damages the turbine plant. In this way, it would be possible to avoid contamination (which the Kremlin should care about, unless it wants to apply the scorched earth strategy), but at the same time it could be presented as irresponsible Ukrainians who shot at a nuclear power plant and threatened the security of the whole of Europe.

    We even know the likely date of the provocation. The Russians warn that the missiles will arrive from Nikopol (directly opposite Enerhodar, on the other side of the Kakhov Reservoir) during the visit of UN Secretary General António Guterres to Odessa. So tomorrow – Friday.

    Finland

    A strange scandal broke out in Helsinki, neither spy nor custom. On Instagram there was a recording showing the Prime Minister of Finland Sanna Marin partying (you have to admit that in a very youthful style, unless the author of this text is already such a limestone) in the company of friends. And it could end there, but the pro-orbánow Twitter profile of Visegrád 24, pretending to be the official profile of the Visegrád Group, released the recording to the wider world with the comment that Marin partying too much and working too little.

    It happened – what else – just when the debate on the blocking of issuing visas to Russian citizens started in Finland. It would take extreme naivety to see pure coincidence here. The creators and sponsors of Visegrád 24 are still unknown, there are indications of ties to the infamous Ołgin troll farm, but even if the V24 is just Orbán’s reptilian, it is obvious that it will be targeting anti-Putin politicians like Sanna Marin. Therefore, a rumor swiftly spread around the recording that drugs were used at the party, i.e. by default – that Marin was also taking drugs.

    Konigsberg

    Although there is no war on our northern border (that would be missing), we cannot help noting that three MiG-31K fighters with hypersonic Ch-47M2 Kinżał missiles appeared in Chkalovsk. According to Moscow’s statement, this is to be an additional strategic deterrent, and the planes will be on 24-hour duty. Two of the three machines are likely to be responsible for the breach of Finnish airspace over the Gulf of Finland this morning. This is at least the second visit of this duo to Czkalovsk; the first was two weeks before the invasion of Ukraine.

    Heneralnyj staff of ZSU

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