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    187th day of the war. Perhaps the Ukrainian counteroffensive near Kherson is about to start

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    For several weeks now, one of the main “arguments” of the pro-Kremlin trolls, which was distorting the reality of the hopeless situation of the invading forces in Ukraine, was the question about the Ukrainian counter-offensive against the Kherson Oblast. Where’s the offensive? When will it start – they asked. Finally, it is with genuine pleasure that we can answer these questions. Where? Where it was supposed to be. When? Right now.

    Reports from the battlefield on the right bank of the Dnieper indicate that today at 7.00 a.m. local time, the Ukrainians began the operation of preparing the battlefield (in English it is called a shaping operation) for larger-scale offensive operations. This means that the armed forces of Ukraine are currently attacking enemy command posts, identified fortified points, ammunition depots – everything that has happened so far, but… more and in the concentrated area covered by the counter-offensive plan. But in addition, it is probably the first time that the missiles of the Ukrainian HIMARS and MLRSs fell not only on the targets in the back, but also on the frontline units, which also suggests an offensive.

    As always, in this situation, more questions arise than answers. Therefore, everything we write below should be treated as at least partial speculation. We will get the first contracts in a few days at the earliest, and maybe only in a few weeks.

    Above all, the disproportion of power raises doubts. As we have been writing for several weeks, the Russians were drawing additional forces to the vicinity of Kherson in order to protect themselves against the announced counter-offensive. The Ukrainians made good use of this by attacking the Antonivski Bridge and other crossings on the southern Dnieper, including the makeshift ones built by the occupiers. Anyway, today the area of ​​the Antoniwski Bridge or the bridge itself was probably fired again.

    The state of forces on the right bank of the river is therefore probably poor, it can be assumed that they lack ammunition, maybe even food, but the Russians are still outnumbered here. Just four days ago, another large convoy arrived at Chersoń. And if the local officers have any brains (and contrary to appearances, such officers still exist in Russia), they spent the last weeks preparing field fortifications. The conclusion is simple: if the Ukrainians are preparing an offensive, they will have a hard time to crack.

    And yet what is happening. If these are not preparations for a general counter-offensive, then at least we see an extensive diversionary operation here – which means that the real offensive is about to start elsewhere. Ukrainian artillery fires at a density that we have not seen since the Battle of Severodonetsk, and the Ukrainian “mech” is advancing on many sections of the southern front. For example, the photo below shows the Ukrainian soldiers with the YPR-765 armored personnel carriers donated by the Netherlands. This suggests that some of the sub-units established in western Ukraine after mobilization are fighting.

    It is also important that the Russians are by no means pretending that nothing is happening. The media there, both governmental and partially independent, announce the evacuation of civilians and the movements of Russian troops. For example, in Nowa Kachówka, residents were called to go down to shelters and cellars. However, the evacuation of the city as such was not announced.

    Information has already begun to circulate that on the first day of the counteroffensive, several or even a dozen villages were liberated. There is no evidence to confirm this. However, we can say with a probability bordering on certainty that the Ukrainian attack bit into the lines of the occupiers in two places: on Ingulec and on the border of the Kherson and Dnipro oblasts (from Kryvyi Rih). The Ukrainians made significant progress especially in the area of ​​Ingulc. Time will tell if they will have the strength to consolidate and develop these advances.

    The fighting in this area is still going on and will most likely continue all night. Several channels, refer to the video below and the message of the Ukrainian group “Kakhovka”, inform that the Ukrainians smashed the 109th regiment of the armed forces of the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic, and a sub-unit of the Russian VVV, which was to provide support to it, withdrew without a fight.

    We must congratulate the Ukrainians on the media coverage of this offensive (regardless of its scale). Now, in the evening, the reports are slower and more subdued, but from what we heard in the morning, one could conclude that the Ukrainians are already approaching Moscow, or at least Smolensk. Such information chaos serves Ukraine much more than Russia and may disorganize some rear units better than actual artillery fire.

    Other issues

    To conclude this report, let’s look at a few minor cases that have unfolded over the past few days.

    As reported by Kommersant, Mikhail Bolotin, the founder and former CEO of the Traktornyje Professions Concern, pleaded guilty in a lawsuit for the appropriation of 90 million rubles out of the amount of more than 5 billion allocated to the Kurganets infantry fighting vehicle development program. He faces ten years in prison, so far he has been in pre-trial detention for eleven months.

    Oleksiy Kovalev, until recently a member of the Servant of the People party (i.e. Zelensky’s party), and then a collaborator working in the occupation authorities in the Kherson Oblast and probably responsible for the theft of Ukrainian grain, died today, shot in front of his home in Hoła Prystan near Kherson.

    There have also been reports that the Russians have transported an unspecified number of tactical nuclear warheads to Crimea. Of course, to defend Crimea with nuclear weapons, you do not need to have nuclear weapons on the peninsula itself, but its presence would make both Ukrainians and Americans understand that the Kremlin treats the peninsula as its integral territory and is ready to defend it with “A” weapons.

    Meanwhile, yesterday south of Sevastopol, near Cape Fiolent, a fire broke out at the S-400 Triumph radar station.

    Russian missiles fell on Kharkiv last night. According to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, surface-to-ground anti-aircraft missiles were used. For at least two months this has been a sad norm. The invaders use (with varying degrees of success) genuine cruise missiles to attack military targets, while anti-aircraft missiles can be used to terrorize civilians, for which there is otherwise less demand.

    Update (01.15): Still more questions than answers, but we know a few things (almost) for sure. First of all, the scale of the actions taken by the Ukrainians proves beyond any doubt that they are on a large scale. As much as we know about the reaction of the Russians (about the intense helicopter traffic between Crimea and Kherson, for example), is another indication that they see a serious threat. The Kremlin propagandists also reacted with an unusual delay, as if they did not know what to say.

    Let us note another possible goal of the Ukrainian offensive operation. In the last few days, the Russians pushed strongly towards Mikołajów, so far without much success, but it was disturbingly similar to the situation of Lisiczańska – nothing moved for a long time, but finally managed to get around the opponent’s defense, a critical mass was reached and a breakthrough, and the town fell immediately. . It is possible that the Ukrainians do not want to liberate the Kherson Oblast for the time being, but are only trying to blunt the edge of the Russian attack and force the Russians to continue to pickle in a half-closed cauldron.

    Information about the breach of the Russian defense in the Kherson Oblast has not yet been confirmed. Certainly, the armed forces of Ukraine have not yet reached Kherson itself.

    There is such a video on the web from Belgorod – a city located twenty-four kilometers from the border with Ukraine and already after several strikes by the Ukrainian armed forces. In practice, it is the only city in Russia that is worth attacking because it is close at hand, and there are important roads and railroads running there. Anyway, even that night more missiles fell near Belgorod. Supposedly, panic broke out in the city and many residents decided to move to other cities, especially to Moscow. Such a conclusion based on one short video seems to be greatly exaggerated, but maybe there is something to it.

    43 Okrema Artyłerijska Bryhada imeni hetʹman Taras Triasyła

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