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    220th day of the war. Łyman taken, ZSU move to Kreminna

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    Lyman taken, now officially, this is confirmed by both pro-Ukrainian and pro-Russian sources. From the moment the corridor connecting the city (and the Russians defending it) crossed with Kreminna, Rubiżno Lugansk and Severodonetsk, it took one day to break up the enemy’s troops and force them to surrender. According to the Ukrainian general staff, all the Muscovites who stayed in Lyman, instead of withdrawing, either surrendered or died. The military phase of the battle, which was very costly for the Russians (allegedly 4,000–5,000 killed and prisoners), has come to an end, now the police phase is underway, that is, securing the city and eliminating the remnants of the occupation forces.

    Three weeks ago, when the entire Russian front in the Kharkiv region was collapsing, the first information about the recapture of Lyman (then occupied for nearly four months) appeared. It soon turned out that they had little to do with the truth, but still heralded the beginning of the end. The ZSU began to systematically circle around Łyman and push the Russians out of the next nearby villages. It is significant that no attempt was made to attack the city frontally – which contrasts starkly with the Russian attempts to seize Bakhmut, where the invaders are simultaneously trying to outflank the city and break into it with a rhyme.

    The best Polish analyst dealing with the war in Ukraine, Konrad Muzyka, points to the difference between the offensive in the Kharkiv region and the battle of Lyman. While in the first one, the Ukrainians were helped by the relocation of a significant occupation force to the Kherson Oblast, in the battle for Lyman, the Ukrainians proved their superiority without any handicap. On the contrary, the battle and its prelude lasted so long that if the Russians wanted (and had the resources), they could have organized the reinforcement of the Lyman garrison without major problems.

    The question is also how – and if at all – Putin will play out the loss of Lyman politically. After all, he had just annexed four Ukrainian oblasts and, through the mouth of his spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, threatened that any attack on the newly incorporated territories would be treated as aggression against Russia. Well, we have the first such “aggression”. Will the Kremlin recognize that words are wind and pretend that nothing happened?

    Kreminna

    Having secured Lyman, the Ukrainians moved further west. Tonight, the Ukrainian artillery began to take fire and shoot at the Russians defending Rubizhne Luhansk, Lisiczansk, Kreminna and Severodonetsk. It is only sixteen kilometers from Torske, the easternmost village in this region, to Kreminna, and less than forty kilometers to the center of Severodonetsk.

    It has been known since ancient times that the opponent is weakest when he is distracted and flees, then he can be dealt the most losses. ZSU do not waste time and are trying to discount the chaos (not to say panic) among the sub-units that managed to withdraw from Lyman. It is hard to expect that they will now be able to organize any solid defense in Kreminna, so the town will most likely soon be on the list of recaptured by the Ukrainian army. There is also a road (R66) and a railway line leading from Swatowy to Siewierodoniecko through Kreminna.

    The only hope of the Russians is that the defenders of Lyman have managed to buy them enough time, just as the Ukrainian defenders of Mariupol previously bought time for their comrades-in-arms in Donbas and the Kherson region. But although the battle for Lyman lasted three weeks, the Russians wasted that time. The mobilization was announced only ten days ago, the first mobsters were sent to the front three days later. Had they been there three weeks earlier, of course, a greater proportion of them would have already died, but a greater proportion could have been organized into somehow commanded units that could now secure Kreminna. And here’s a meatball – there are no such divisions. There is only a mass of cannon fodder that cannot be opposed to the well-equipped, disciplined Ukrainians, carried by the impulse of another victory.

    Meanwhile, yesterday, Volodymyr Zelensky canceled the autumn conscription to the army, and at the same time canceled the autumn demobilization round of the conscripts. This is the second such decision – in April, the spring rounds of conscription and demobilization were canceled.

    Of course, the Lyman garrison was supposed to defend itself to the last soldier. Why? For both operational and political reasons. The former could still be avoided if a decent retreat to the new line of defense had been ordered earlier, but the latter were unfazed. Putin ordered to defend, soldat has to defend. Therefore, meals were sent there, which the Ukrainians converted into pellets together with the previously present units. The result is that now there is no Lyman, there will be no Kreminna soon, and the northern part of the Luhansk Oblast is open to the Ukrainians. The Russians are now withdrawing to the line of the Krasna river – running through Kreminna and Swatów, which is a tributary of the Donets. Ukrainian troops from the Kupian bridgehead, which is slowly being extended, but it is uncertain about its current borders, will soon be moving to the latter town.

    Kherson region

    We would like to write something about the situation in the Kherson Oblast, but the Ukrainians still maintain a strict information block there, and the Russians write little about this section of the front – their attention is focused on what is happening at the Donets. It is known that there are fierce fighting in the area of ​​the David Bridhead bridgehead, possibly more intense in the last few days than in the past two weeks. Ukrainian missiles fell this afternoon at a police station in occupied Berysław (on the Dnieper, opposite Kakhovka). Explosions have also been heard in Kherson today.

    On September 30, the Ukrainian territorial defense knocked down the Ka-52 attack helicopter in the Zaporizhia region.

    Update (1.35)

    A search for those responsible for the defeat in Łyman began on the Russian Internet. The Chechen warlord and criminal Ramzan Kadyrov and the Russian fascist and criminal Yevgeny Prigozhin have apparently formed an alliance here and are unanimously attacking the officers directly commanding the defense of Lyman (led by Colonel-General Alexander Lapin), as well as the chief of staff, Valery Gierasimov, who allegedly joined the council. to take Łapin off his position. Kadyrov also calls for the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

    There are also voices in defense of Łapin. His supporters recall that it was he who led to the relatively easy capture of Lisiczansk thanks to the lap of about, despite the fact that the original plan assumed a frontal assault. Łapin is said to be an active and reasonable commander who is not afraid to come to the front line, and in Łymana he was lost due to communication problems and control over individual sub-units.

    After several weeks of relative peace, an explosion occurred again at Belbek airport north of Sevastopol, but this time it was not caused by the Ukrainians (or at least nothing to indicate it). The plane just fell off the runway on landing, crashed and burned down.

    In one of the Krabs that we handed over to Ukraine, a barrel broke recently. This is a clear symptom of intense – too intense – frontline use.

    Meanwhile, rumor spreads that the Gepard anti-aircraft systems received from Germany – if not all, then at least some – were withdrawn from the front zone and transferred to large cities. The cheetahs are supposed to hunt Iranian-produced circulating ammunition used by the Russians to attack population centers. The following photos of Defense Minister Oleksij Reznikov were taken in Odessa.

    Heneralnyj staff of ZSU

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