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    265th day of war. in Przewodowo in the province two people died in Lublin [Aktualizacja]

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    November 15 may turn out to be one of the most momentous days in the entire Russo-Ukrainian war. The massive attack on the power infrastructure in Ukraine was not only the largest since the Muscovite attack, but also its effects spread beyond the territory of Ukraine – to Poland. Two of our compatriots lost their lives as a result of the impact of a projectile of an unidentified type.

    This afternoon, the Russians launched about a hundred missiles over Ukraine. The previous record, set on October 10, was eighty-four rounds. According to official data, the Ukrainian anti-aircraft defense managed to shoot down 73 Kh-101, Kh-555 and Kalibr cruise missiles, as well as ten planes of Shahed-136 missiles, and one Orion combat drone (this would be the third UAV of this type destroyed).

    The missiles that did hit their targets, however, caused serious damage to many cities. In Kiev, the Russians hit two residential buildings (because why not …), in which at least one person was killed. First of all, the attack affected the operation of the Ukrainian power grid. To prevent the grid from overloading, power was cut off in many cities. It is not yet known when normal deliveries will be restored. In the capital alone, about half of the population was cut off from electricity. Also many municipalities in Moldova were left without electricity.

    The all-out attack was an all too obvious reaction to the compromising defeat of the Muscovite horde after Kherson. But it wasn’t just a blind strike. Firstly, it was organized during the G20 Summit in Indonesia. Second: winter is coming in Ukraine. In Kiev tomorrow, for the first time since spring, a negative temperature is expected. In a few days, in some cities, thermometers will show -7 degrees or even lower at night. In the face of interrupted supplies of electricity, gas and running water, thousands of Ukrainians will suffer from cold and, possibly, hunger in the coming days. That was the purpose of the Russian attack.

    Of course, Poland was not the target, but this time the missiles did not miss us. There have been strikes near the Polish-Ukrainian border (vide Jaworów) before, but today something got through to our side. “Something” because there is no certainty what shells we were dealing with. It is only known that two objects hit the territory of the Republic of Poland, one of which caused the death of two people in Przewodów near Hrubieszów.

    Perhaps once again we have received proof that Russian precision weapons are not very precise and simply wandered where they should not be. But another scenario must also be taken into account: a Russian missile was struck by Ukrainian air defenses, so gently that it flew on as if nothing had happened, damaged and incapable of doing its job, but still dangerous. It could also have been a Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile that missed its target and in which the self-destruction system failed to ignite.

    We believe that our readers do not need to explain such elementary matters, but just in case, let us emphasize: for now, first of all, it is necessary to determine what exactly happened, the tragedy in Przewodów does not in itself mean that we are (or will be) at war with Russia. At 7.00 pm, the meeting of the Committee of the Council of Ministers for National Security and Defense Affairs began. President Andrzej Duda called a meeting of the National Security Council for tomorrow at noon.

    The heads of government of NATO countries, as well as NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and the Prime Minister of Finland Sanna Marin, assured us of their support for our country. Probably in the near future – unless Russia repeats the attack on our country, because then it will be difficult to talk about randomness – the world’s reaction will be limited to diplomatic steps, but it is possible that additional allied troops sent to Poland as a gesture of solidarity will soon begin to arrive. And Ukraine may receive additional deliveries of more modern weapons.

    Meanwhile, the Kremlin propaganda came up with the idea that a British provocation took place in Przewodów.

    Kinburn Peninsula

    Having reached the right bank of the Dnieper and liberated Kherson, the Ukrainians did not stop at all. There is no question of a large-scale crossing of the river, but Ukrainian special forces raided the poorly defended (or not at all) Kinburn Peninsula, southwest of Kherson and south of Mykolaiv, and liberated two villages there. If the Russians decide to push the enemy into the sea, the enemy will simply get into semi-rigid boats and return to the other shore of the Dnieper Bay.

    Further sabotage raids from the peninsula to the east can be expected, destabilizing and recognizing the Russian defense in this section. “Specialists” will also be able to correct rocket artillery fire from the other bank of the Dnieper.

    However, this is where the Transnistrian games will probably end. As we have already written, it is one thing to force a river by a large group, but to keep it in a state of combat readiness on the left bank is quite another. Troops would soon find themselves struggling with supply shortages, and thus a great success could become an open door to a similarly great disaster.

    Therefore, OSINT and RUMINT news suggest that a significant part of the forces that liberated the right-bank Kherson have already left this area. Securing the area is currently strictly police work with an admixture of sapper work. The first-line troops have already begun to move north and probably further east.

    A group of mobilized soldiers from the Smolensk region abandoned their assigned positions on the left bank of the Dnieper River due to continuous Ukrainian shelling and drone attacks. They claim that they were not informed about the recapture of Kherson by the Ukrainians and that they did not receive any equipment that would allow them to survive, or even the means to prepare decent shelters.

    “Polish” bullets

    (Update 23.25) There are many indications that the missile that killed two people in Przewodowo was Ukrainian. The photographed elements were identified with high probability as elements of the propulsion section of the 5W55 missile used by the S-300 anti-aircraft system. However, there is still the option of a missile launched from Belarus in ground-to-surface mode.

    Gazeta Wyborcza reports that two men were killed: a foreman working in an agricultural enterprise and a tractor driver who brought corn.

    Let us also add here that, contrary to the claims of some commentators (example below), neither the Polish nor the NATO air defense system suffered any spectacular defeat here. Yes, it is a slip-up, and unfortunately a slip-up ended tragically, but also a slip-up that is an inherent feature of any air defense system: leaks. It is impossible to secure every corner of a country as large as Poland. Making it a stick on rails in a key exam is simply irresponsible.

    (Update 01.10) Joe Biden had an urgent conversation with Andrzej Duda, and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin – with Mariusz Błaszczak. Duda then also spoke with Volodymyr Zelensky, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

    Currently, Warsaw is analyzing whether there are grounds to invoke Article 4 – not the more famous Article 5 – of the North Atlantic Treaty. Article 4 stipulates that Member States “shall consult each other whenever, in their opinion, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of either Party is threatened”. If a Russian missile fell on Poland, there can certainly be talk of a threat to our security, but it would be difficult to justify invoking Article 5, which speaks of an armed attack. Unless there is evidence that the missile was not only Russian, but also deliberately launched towards our country. And then you have to remember that articles 4 and 5 do not work automatically, there is no algorithm that would automatically trigger them – everything is a political decision.

    (Update 02.35) You also need to put a question mark next to the information about the second missile. Yes, witnesses speak of two explosions, no doubt about it. But still no pictures of the debris of this second missile have surfaced.

    (Update 03.10) Biden told a press conference during the G20 (or rather G19) summit that the missile that killed two Poles was probably not launched by Russia. Let us remind here that, contrary to what some journalists say, the Polish authorities never said that the missile was Russian. There was only talk of a Russian-made missile. And it really doesn’t mean much, because most of the 5W55 missiles were made in Russia, the only exception being those launched by Zhulanśkyj Maszobudivnyj Zaf Wizar from Vyshneve near Kiev.

    (Update November 16, 06.15) Also other American officials quoted by the Associated Press are inclined to the version that a Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile fell on Poland.

    Ukrainian bullet

    (Update November 16, 13.20) The Reuters agency, citing a NATO source, reports that Biden unequivocally informed the G7 and NATO members that a Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile had fallen on Poland. In turn, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said at a press conference that it was most likely a Ukrainian missile.

    Heneralnyy staff of the ZSU

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