Fighting continues on the border between Azerbaijan and Armenia. The Azerbaijani armed forces continued their attacks on Armenian territory most of the day, while the Armenian armed forces tried to counteract violations of the territory and fire at civilian targets to the best of their (relatively modest) capabilities. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian admitted on the side of Armenia that 105 soldiers have already died. In the provinces of Sjunik and Gegharkunik, more than 2,500 people, mainly women and children, have had to flee their homes.
In the afternoon and evening, there was information about attacks on several localities in the provinces of Sjunik and Vajoc Dzor, i.e. a relatively narrow (twenty-five kilometers at the narrowest point) strip of land separating Azerbaijan proper from Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic. It seems that the main target of the offensive – if any – will be the town of Jermuk with a population of 5,000 in the Vajoc Dzor province.
Multiple Armenian Towns including the City of Jermuk are now reportedly under Heavy Assault from Azerbaijani Artillery and Ground Forces who have advanced around 5 Miles into the Country in multiple areas, Armenian Forces are attempting to hold Defensive Positions along the LoC. pic.twitter.com/zlDXDR9W4t
– OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) September 14, 2022
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If there were indeed a full-scale attack to occupy the entire belt, Jermuk is a good place to start. There is a small airport there, and twenty kilometers to the southwest is the Getik road junction. Taking this place would mean that all of southern Armenia would be cut off from the capital and doomed to the mercy and disgrace of Azerbaijani soldiers.
Let us emphasize that there are no signs of a full-scale war yet, but what we are seeing is all too disturbing. It is known that the Azerbaijani armed forces entered the territory of Armenia to a depth of more than five kilometers in some places. The missiles fell, inter alia, at the news of Sotk, where the famous gold mine is located.
Intense shelling near Armenian town of Sotk, on the border with Azerbaijan. Several fires burning, hearing artillery every minute or so.
Shell hit the apple tree near this house. Its residents have been forced to flee. pic.twitter.com/gQZd1y4mjt
– Gabriel Gavin (@GabrielCSGavin) September 14, 2022
It is impossible not to pay attention to the justification of combat operations within Armenia provided by Baku. Well, the Armenian armed forces deployed their sub-units near civilian buildings on the territory of Armenia, which, according to Moscow … pardon, according to Baku, makes these buildings fully-fledged military targets.
⚡ The Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense has accused Armenia of deploying units, weapons, and military equipment along the border near buildings and civil infrastructure and ‘deep within the territory of Armenia’, thus making them ‘legitimate military targets’ for Azerbaijan.
– OC Media (@OCMediaorg) September 14, 2022
Witold Repetowicz suggests that Russia may play for the partition of Armenia. The southern part of the country would be given to Turkey and Azerbaijan in exchange for other political favors, and the northern part, after Pashinian’s overthrow, would eventually become a Russian puppet, only formally independent.
4 / … Russia would regain full control over Armenia as a result of the coup, ultimately eliminating all Western influence, and Sjunik would give TR / AZ for favors in the UKR war. Only the West or Iran (more likely) can block this scenario.
– Witold Repetowicz (@WitoldRPL) September 14, 2022
Armenia decided to act under Article 4 of the Collective Security Treaty – roughly the NATO equivalent of Article 5 – and call on other members to fulfill their allied obligations. This is the second such case in history, after Kazakhstan, whose authorities invoked Article 4 in January this year, asking for help in combating the “terrorist threat”, ie mass anti-government protests. Ironically, the request was formally accepted by the CSTO chairman, namely Nikol Pashinian. This time, however, the organization announced that it would limit itself to sending an observation mission and not provide military support to Armenia.
In practice, this means the silent death of the CSTO, which failed the first serious exam. Of course, the indolence of the Russian armed forces, which, even if they wanted, would probably not be able to stop Azerbaijan with those troops that are still available for such an operation, plays an important role here. However, it should also be remembered that Russia is also losing political influence in the “near abroad”, even in Kazakhstan, whose leaders it has just helped to stay in power. Meanwhile, Baku decided to make the most of the situation.
* in recent months, #Russia has had armed incidents # Armenia– # Azerbaijan, because:
+ disciplined #Armenia
+ justified the position of #Russia in the region
+ constituted a potential platform to try to resume political dialogue with #UE, #USA, #France
However, not this time.27 / n
– Arkadiusz Legięć (@ArkadiuszLegiec) September 14, 2022
According to the Armenian Ministry of Defense, the Azerbaijans fired on a car of the Russian FSB, allegedly carrying out a humanitarian mission in the combat zone, near the village of Werin Szorża in the Gegharkunik province. While combining the FSB institutions with the adjective “humanitarian” may seem unusual, it must be borne in mind that they were most likely not safe, but border guards who were part of the Russian stabilization forces deployed there after the 2020 war.
Ministry of Defense of Armenia confirmed that #Azerbaijan opened fire at vehicles of #Russias Federal Security Service carrying out #humanitarian mission in the combat zone. This attests to the indiscriminate targeting of the Azerbaijani armed forces
– Anna A. Naghdalyan (@naghdalyan) September 14, 2022
A dozen or so minutes ago, the Armenian National Security Council announced that a ceasefire had been achieved. This offers some hope of calming the situation, but let us remember that this is not the first ceasefire in the past forty-eight hours. The previous one didn’t last long. The Azerbaijani media and local politicians do not yet confirm this information, but preliminary reports from the border indicate that it has actually died down temporarily.
BREAKING: The Secretary of the National Security Council of Armenia has announced a ceasefire.
‘With the involvement of the international community, an agreement on a ceasefire was reached. We hope Azerbaijan will keep that ceasefire ‘, he said.https: //t.co/uosX1lZqnO
– OC Media (@OCMediaorg) September 14, 2022
Armenians understandably do not intend to yield. When Pashinian hinted that he was ready to negotiate and accept Baku’s demands, anti-government protests broke out in Yerevan, Gyumri (the second largest city in the country) and Stepanakert, the capital of the Republic of Arcach (Nagorno-Karabakh). For the people of Armenia, the recognition of Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity and the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh is unacceptable. It is not known whether martial law will be introduced.
Due to the high risk of fire, all schools in the provinces of Gegharkunik and Sjunik were suspended until further notice. As a curiosity, let’s add that the authorities of both countries have blocked access to TikTok. As we have written many times, this application, among all social media, is considered the most dangerous for the operational security of the armed forces. Two years ago, both sides reported the war almost live on social media, which paid for many soldiers (mainly Armenian) with their lives. This time, no one wants to repeat the same mistakes.
See also: Wagnerists in Mali – bloody criminals, poor mercenaries
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