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    Artificial intelligence is expected to predict Ukraine’s need for weapons and ammunition

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    Artificial intelligence is one of the achievements that can make a revolution in the military. Ambitious plans focus on autonomous unmanned systems and command systems, but logistics management systems may be the first to be put into practice. The United States wants to use artificial intelligence to forecast the needs of Ukrainian forces for weapons and ammunition.

    Coordinated military assistance from NATO countries and their partners to Ukraine formally started in April after the US-convened conference at the Ramstein base in Germany. Then, at the beginning of June, the International Donor Coordination Center (IDCC), operating at the command of the American forces in Europe (USEURCOM) in Stuttgart, began operations. The employees of the Center organize and track deliveries of handed over weapons and supplies.

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    The system works in a manner typical of bureaucracy. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense reports a need for a specific type of equipment, IDCC checks who can provide the necessary equipment, and then arranges transport to Ukraine. Along the way, officials document what was requested, what was transferred and what was received. This causes the typical downtime of bureaucracy, which is often accompanied by a mess of documents, leading to unclear situations.

    Let us recall here the case of Donatella Rovery from Amnesty International, the main author of the organisation’s disastrous message, accusing the Ukrainian armed forces of posing a threat to the lives of civilians. In early August, on CBS News Rover, she stated that only 30% of the weapons supplied from abroad went to the front and that it was impossible to verify what was happening with the shipments. Rover implied that much of the weapons fell into the wrong hands.

    Well, Ukraine creates stocks and classic inventory systems are not keeping up with the dynamic situation at the front. This was the case of Chinese 60 mm mortar shells recently fired in Russian positions. The first glitch was that the Russian military did not use mortars of this caliber on a permanent basis. It quickly turned out that the missiles were bought by Albania, which handed them over to Ukraine. The ammunition crates were captured by the Russians at some point in the war and then recaptured by the Ukrainians.

    It is also worth mentioning another situation with the Pentagon in the lead role. An audit commissioned by the Department of Defense of the supply by the United States of militias fighting in Syria with the forces of the self-proclaimed Islamic State in 2017-2018 showed that the fate of weapons and equipment worth $ 715 million cannot be documented.

    The use of new systems using artificial intelligence is to avoid such situations in the future. For the Pentagon and IDCC, however, the main goal is to develop algorithms that will forecast the amount of ammunition, weapons and equipment needed. So far, deliveries have responded to current needs, accurate forecasting is to allow for active planning of deliveries in advance.

    Amazon is an inspiration, as it uses artificial intelligence to ensure it is able to meet the demand. This is not the first time that commercial applications have been inspired by the current war. The Ukrainians created an algorithm similar to that used by Uber. However, he does not associate drivers with passengers, but artillery units with units that need artillery support. This allowed for a much more effective use of limited resources.

    Amazon and Co. have one advantage over the military: they can add sensors to shipments to get a complete picture of the data. But Jared Summers, chief technology officer of the 18th Airborne Corps, currently working at the IDCC, is optimistic and points to the possibility of using other solutions. The center plans to develop predictive models based on existing data.

    – Once you have enough data, you can start seeing failure and damage indicators. And we can build this model without investing in sensors, Summers told DefenseOne. Knowing the approximate time of a possible breakdown allows you to order spare parts in advance. Work on the model is already underway and, according to Summers, in an optimistic version it will be ready by the end of this year.

    However, not everyone shares this optimism and enthusiasm. The Office of the Inspector General of the Department of Defense is telling the Pentagon that it is not using the Advana analytical tool introduced last year to a sufficient extent. It was supposed to improve the collection and distribution of data. However, many department officials stuck to paper internal IDs, and as a result, different departments often had different data at their disposal. Advana would undoubtedly also increase the transparency of deliveries for Ukraine, as well as the ability to track the fate of the transferred equipment. Summers is also a supporter of the tool.

    Applying the new possibilities offered by digitization and artificial intelligence is a must. The war in Ukraine has made it clear that the armed forces need to thoroughly redesign their logistics, command and control systems, and target-targeting capabilities. Greater mobility and flexibility are a matter of survival.

    The use of artificial intelligence in forecasting is not limited to logistics. In fact, the latter comes in the second flush. In 2019, the command of the US Air Force in the Pacific (PACAF) unveiled a program intended to result in the use of artificial intelligence to monitor and predict the activities of foreign air forces in the Pacific. No country was mentioned, but as you can easily guess, it is about China and Russia.

    See also: Ireland is afraid of becoming a de facto British protectorate

    Heneralnyj staff of ZSU

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